Understanding the Forfeit

De Angelis's reference to 4-5 days of testing immediately after race 3 was ominous. The series conceded, another plan was already set.

There are three reasons why forfeiting the series is a bad decision: it takes away an opportunity for Rod Davis to match-up against Russell Coutts in the pre-race circling, it denies any minor modification and testing to the sails, and it is unsportsmanlike - it is bad image and it takes away some edge of the individual team members' competitiveness.

So why throw in the towel? And what does it really mean?

The first question is obvious: it gives one extra day for making changes and testing them in the water before the quarter-final repêchage scheduled to start on the 23rd. Given that ITA-74 has been modified once before in 5 days, similar drastic changes could be made in the 7 days left open to them.

But the significance is a totally different matter to decypher. The rules state that one can make changes if they do not change more than 50 percent of the original laminate area of the hull. After round robin 1, it is quite possible that Luna Rossa had changes that would have changed more than 50% of the laminate area of the hull.

Now there may be some interpretation required of what consitutes 'original'; at what moment is the original considered to be original? Original could be the one used in race 3 and thus the hull could change by another 49%... De Angelis was quoted as saying some changes were planned, so this first assumption does carry weight.

A second conclusion has to be drawn relative to ITA-80. ITA-80 was not used to date; had the match against Alinghi really been considered a test match, it was very conceivable that ITA-80 be used. It was not, notwithstanding major changes to its hull. Thus the confidence entering the quarter-finals around ITA-80 is low. The forfeit and necessity to give 24 additional hours to changes to ITA-74 points to the fact that confidence in ITA-80 is still low. On the other hand, ITA-80 may really reserved for weak wind conditions expected in February.

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A final word regarding the LV Cup organisation rules. Contrary to the initial published rules, the match-ups in the repêchage are not pre-set according to the quarter-finals table. The match-ups are decided by the reigning points leader after the round-robins. (Have no fear, from here on, there is no possible confusion about who meets who.) Thus oneWorld will pick its opponent and Luna Rossa gets the crumbs. Will nationalistic interests steer oneWorld from picking on Stars&Stripes?